Reports

Global Economic Outlook - November 2018

Economic research

  • Algeria,
  • Angola,
  • General economic

8th November 2018

Hiker Global Economic Outlook

The bright outlook presented in May has proven true but clouds are quickly gathering on the horizon. In an increasingly uncertain environment, there is no room for policy mistakes.

Trading Briefs

Atradius know-how on trading opportunities including the documents: Export Practice, Credit-to-Cash Briefings and the Atradius Risk Map.

Industry Performance Forecast

Atradius industry forecasts give you access to trends and forecasts in key industries of the country.

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    South America country report Brazil 2019

    Country report

    • Brazil
    • General economic

    30th April 2019

    The adoption of a pension reform that provides savings of at least 600-700 billion reais is key to keep public debt sustainable and to sustain invertors’ confidence in the long-term.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables UK 2019

    Market Monitor

    • United Kingdom
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    The UK sales outlook for consumer durables in 2019 is more subdued as household finances are strained and private consumption growth is decreasing.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables USA 2019

    Market Monitor

    • USA
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    Higher costs of raw materials and import tariffs have increased operational costs and reduced overall profitability in the household appliances segment.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables Netherlands 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Netherlands
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    Insolvencies are expected to level off or to increase slightly in 2019, in line with the forecast of a modest 2% increase in Dutch business failures.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables Italy 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Italy
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    Many smaller retailers lack the flexibility and financial means to adapt business models to changing consumer habits, and the credit risk remains elevated.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables Germany 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Germany
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    Retailers´ margins are expected to decrease further due to the fierce competitive market environment in most segments and increased price transparency.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables China 2019

    Market Monitor

    • China
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    Profit margins of retailers in the online segment to increase slightly in 2019, while brick-and-mortar retailers face continued margin pressure.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables UAE 2019

    Market Monitor

    • United Arab Emirates
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    The number of payment delays and protracted defaults is expected to remain high in 2019, due to ongoing cash flow problems and restricted access to loans.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables France 2019

    Market Monitor

    • France
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    Even larger consumer durables retailers could face troubles due to increased financial exposure after acquisitions and the difficult economic environment.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables Spain 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Spain
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    Good payment behaviour in the household appliances, furniture and consumer electronics segments over the past two years, and no major changes are expected.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables Belgium 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Belgium
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    Both payment delays and insolvencies are expected to increase in the coming six months, mainly affecting smaller consumer durables retailers in Belgium.

    Market Monitor Consumer Durables Indonesia 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Indonesia
    • Consumer Durables

    11th April 2019

    With its large population, growing middle class and increasingly modern spending habits Indonesia's retail sector is one of the most promising in Asia.

    Asia country report China 2019

    Country report

    • China
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    China´s economic growth is forecast to slow down to 6% while downside risks have increased and business insolvencies will increase further in 2019

    Asia country report India 2019

    Country report

    • India
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    India´s economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 remains robust with about 7% growth, but a weak banking sector and high corporate indebtedness are concerns.

    Asia country report Indonesia 2019

    Country report

    • Indonesia
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    Indonesia´s short-term economic prospects are generally positive, but it remains vulnerable to sharply decreasing capital flows to emerging markets.

    Asia country report Japan 2019

    Country report

    • Japan
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    Japan´s export growth will slow down due to lower global trade expansion, but domestic demand will underpin the economic expansion of about 1% in 2019.

    Asia country report Vietnam 2019

    Country report

    • Vietnam
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    The export sector increasingly benefits from relocation of export-oriented industries away from China, due to Vietnam’s relatively low production costs.

    Asia country report Thailand 2019

    Country report

    • Thailand
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    Private consumption and public infrastructure investments sustain Thailand´s economic growth in 2019 and 2020, but high household debt remains an issue.

    Asia country report Malaysia 2019

    Country report

    • Malaysia
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    Economic growth is expected to slow down somewhat in 2019 and 2020, mainly due to lower export growth and the cooling down of the Chinese economic cycle.

    Asia country report Singapore 2019

    Country report

    • Singapore
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    Due to its high dependency on international trade, Singapore is highly susceptible to global protectionism and a hard landing of the Chinese economy.

    Asia country report the Philippines 2019

    Country report

    • Phillipines
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    Major infrastructure investment is necessary in order to increase private investments and to safeguard high economic growth rates in the long term.

    Asia country report South Korea 2019

    Country report

    • South Korea
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    Due to its high dependency on international trade, South Korea is highly susceptible to global protectionism and a hard landing of the Chinese economy.

    Asia country report Taiwan 2019

    Country report

    • Taiwan
    • General economic

    28th March 2019

    Taiwan´s economic expansion is likely to moderate in 2019 and in 2020, as both global trade growth and mainland China´s import demand have cooled down.

    Corporate insolvencies begin to rise

    Economic research

    • Australia,
    • Austria,
    • General economic

    26th February 2019

    After nearly a decade of annual improvements, 2019 is expected to mark the first year of insolvency growth since the crisis.

    Market Monitor construction UK 2019

    Market Monitor

    • United Kingdom
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    As many building materials are imported from the EU tariffs or limits on quantities imported after Brexit could lead to higher costs and material shortage.

    Market Monitor construction USA 2019

    Market Monitor

    • USA
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    The construction materials subsector clearly benefits from increased building material prices, and elevated costs are expected to persist throughout 2019.

    Market Monitor Construction France 2019

    Market Monitor

    • France
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    The payment duration in the industry has increased to 70 days on average, and the payment experience over the past two years has been rather bad.

    Market Monitor Construction Germany 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Germany
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    Many smaller construction companies have weak equity ratios and limited financial scope, which makes them vulnerable to payment delays and defaults.

    Market Monitor construction Sweden 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Sweden
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    Competition in the Swedish construction sector is high and consolidation is ongoing, with financially stronger groups buying financially weaker peers.

    Market Monitor construction Denmark 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Denmark
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    The insolvency level is high compared to other industries, and after increasing in 2018 business failures are expected rise further in H1 of 2019.

    Market Monitor construction Singapore 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Singapore
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    Payment behaviour in the construction industry slowly deteriorated in 2017 and 2018, and this negative trend is expected to continue in the coming months.

    Market Monitor Construction Belgium 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Belgium
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    The overall indebtedness of many Belgian construction businesses is still high, while banks remain rather unwilling to provide credit to the industry.

    Market Monitor construction Italy 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Italy
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    Besides the low spending capacity, ongoing tight lending conditions set by banks remain one of the main reasons for the subdued sector performance.

    Market Monitor construction Australia 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Australia
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    Payments in the Australian construction sector take 30-60 days on average, and the level of protracted payments and insolvencies was high in 2018.

    Market Monitor construction Spain 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Spain
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    Late payments by mainly larger companies continue to negatively affect the working capital management of many smaller businesses in all segments.

    Market Monitor construction Netherlands 2019

    Market Monitor

    • Netherlands
    • Construction

    21st February 2019

    Mid-sized businesses are facing profitability issues due to higher labour costs triggered by shortage of qualified staff and increased commodity prices.

    Promising emerging markets for 2019

    Economic research

    • Bulgaria,
    • Indonesia,
    • General economic

    14th February 2019

    Despite increasing clouds on the horizon, there remain several bright spots for export opportunities in emerging markets.

    Country Report Mexico 2019

    Country report

    • Mexico
    • General economic

    7th February 2019

    The economic impact of USMCA on Mexican-US trade is likely to be limited, as it is effectively a small modification of the pre-existing NAFTA agreement.

    Country Report United States 2019

    Country report

    • USA
    • General economic

    7th February 2019

    Trade policy uncertainty is one of the top risks to US businesses and consumers in 2019 that may bring the next downturn on more quickly than expected.

    Country Report Canada 2019

    Country report

    • Canada
    • General economic

    7th February 2019

    Despite a forecast growth slowdown in 2019 the economy should still experience positive momentum, with low unemployment and manageable inflation.

    Market Monitor food United Kingdom 2018

    Market Monitor

    • United Kingdom
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    Some larger players continue to push the supply chain on price and longer payment terms, adding cash flow challenges to mainly smaller food businesses.

    Market Monitor food France 2018

    Market Monitor

    • France
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    Many food producers and processors struggle to pass on higher input prices, which is hampered by the high concentration and market power of retailers.

    Market Monitor food Denmark 2018

    Market Monitor

    • Denmark
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    As the UK is a major Danish export market, a hard Brexit could trigger a significant decrease in Danish export of food and agricultural products.

    Market Monitor food Ireland 2018

    Market Monitor

    • Ireland
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    Despite efforts of food exporters to diversify shipments away from Britain, a hard Brexit remains a major challenge, also for shipments to mainland Europe.

    Market Monitor food Netherlands 2018

    Market Monitor

    • Netherlands
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    Growth is set to continue, but the strong export orientation makes many food businesses susceptible to trade disputes and price/currency fluctuations.

    Market Monitor food Germany 2018

    Market Monitor

    • Germany
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    Many meat processors and producers suffer from higher procurement prices, while their ability to pass on those increases to retailers is limited.

    Market Monitor food Italy 2018

    Market Monitor

    • Italy
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    Even the biggest food retailers are small compared to other major international players, and e-commerce is increasingly challenging traditional businesses.

    Market Monitor food Mexico 2018

    Market Monitor

    • Mexico
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    The new Mexican government could launch policies in order to increase domestic production and put emphasis on domestic agricultural support programmes.

    Market Monitor food Australia 2018

    Market Monitor

    • Australia
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    Higher input costs have increased the pressure on margins in recent years, with a recent draught in Australia having and additional negative impact.

    Market Monitor food Poland 2018

    Market Monitor

    • Poland
    • Food

    19th December 2018

    The number of protracted payments in the sector is rather high as larger businesses use their leverage against suppliers by demanding long payment terms.

    Disclaimer

    The statements made herein are provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be relied upon for any purpose. Please refer to the actual policy or the relevant product or services agreement for the governing terms. Nothing herein should be construed to create any right, obligation, advice or responsibility on the part of Atradius, including any obligation to conduct due diligence of buyers or on your behalf. If Atradius does conduct due diligence on any buyer it is for its own underwriting purposes and not for the benefit of the insured or any other person. Additionally, in no event shall Atradius and its related, affiliated and subsidiary companies be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the statements made information herein.