The next chapter of credit insurance in a world of uncertainty

As the industry looks ahead to the next decade, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change, the question is clear: how will credit insurance evolve? At ICISA’s centenary, celebrating 100 years of supporting global trade, Andreas Tesch, Atradius’ Chief Risk Officer (CRO), joined fellow industry leaders to share his perspective during the panel “Leading the future of insurance and reinsurance”. As former President of ICISA, Tesch brought not only his current executive insight but also a deep understanding of the association’s trajectory. 

AI and connectivity reshape the future of credit insurance 

Technological revolutions have defined the evolution of the credit insurance industry over the past decades, enabling greater scale and the ability to make thousands of risk decisions with increasing speed and consistency. The next step change will be driven by artificial intelligence, which is beginning to transform how companies operate, assess risk, and serve clients. However, this shift also requires a fundamental organisational rethink. Unlike previous technological waves, AI models are not deterministic: they do not always produce the same output and can generate unexpected results. Managing this uncertainty, while maintaining reliability and trust, will be one of the defining challenges of its implementation. 

According to Andreas Tesch: “Credit insurers are, in many ways, better prepared for this technological shift than other industries. Risk assessment at scale has always been at the core of what we do, so we are not starting from scratch, we are building on decades of experience. There is no future without history. Even 20 years ago, we were already automating decisions, and that gives us a strong foundation to implement the next generation of technologies with confidence.” 

Connectivity is emerging as another defining factor in the evolution of the industry. While technological progress has already improved scale and decision-making, the way credit insurance integrates into clients’ day-to-day operations remains a key barrier to wider adoption. Simplifying processes and embedding solutions more seamlessly into business workflows will be critical to unlocking further growth.  

As Tesch puts it: “Connectivity will be a key enabler for the future of our industry. Today, credit insurance often requires clients to manage processes manually, which can limit accessibility and uptake even where the product's value is clear. Greater connectivity will allow for much higher levels of automation, making solutions simpler, faster, and more integrated into clients’ daily operations. This represents a significant opportunity to increase penetration and bring the value of credit insurance to a much wider segment of the market.” 

The human factor: judgement in an age of complexity 

The human factor will remain essential, even as data and technology continue to advance. Expert judgement will continue to play a critical role, particularly in more complex cases where decisions can't rely solely on automated models. As processes become more efficient, professionals will be able to dedicate more time to engaging with clients, understanding their needs, and providing tailored advice. In this evolving environment, the combination of data-driven insights and human judgement will be what ultimately defines strong and sustainable decision-making. 

As Tesch adds, “Technology performs well when risk evolves gradually, but it is far less effective in periods of sudden disruption. That is where human expertise becomes critical. Experience, and the transfer of knowledge between generations, play a central role in our industry. In recent years we have faced multiple shocks, from pandemics to the wars, but during the 2009 financial crisis many analysts had only worked in stable conditions. In those situations, having people who have already navigated a downturn is essential. It is what enables us to strike the right balance: protecting our portfolio and keeping claims under control, while continuing to support our clients and maintain their satisfaction.” 

Geopolitics and the changing risk landscape 

Geopolitics is becoming an equally powerful force shaping the future of the industry. Shifts in global trade dynamics, rising uncertainty, and the growing fragmentation of value chains are making risk more complex to assess. In this environment, credit insurance is reinforcing its role by managing risk while enabling trade, as an essential partner in an increasingly complex and uncertain world. 

“In recent crises, such as the tensions in the Middle East, we have seen a clear increase in demand for our services, even as we maintained strong control over claims. It shows that our ability to navigate geopolitical risks is becoming ever more relevant. In an environment marked by uncertainty, clients increasingly rely on us not just for protection, but for confidence to continue trading,” says Tesch. 

Another important shift is the need to manage larger, more complex exposures. As trade flows become more concentrated, clients increasingly require solutions capable of supporting sizeable risks. This is driving closer collaboration with reinsurers to expand capacity and ensure sustainable risk sharing. At the same time, higher governance standards are reinforcing the position of insurance compared with less regulated alternatives, particularly in periods of stress in private credit markets. In this context, insurers bring a clear advantage: a proven ability to assess risk, manage exposures, and operate within disciplined capital frameworks.  

As ICISA marks its first centenary, one conclusion stands out: the future of credit insurance will be shaped by the interplay of technology, human expertise, and a rapidly evolving risk environment. Atradius has been part of this journey from the beginning, as one of the founding members of ICISA, and remains committed to supporting its continued development. The ability to assess risk, support clients, and enable trade through periods of both stability and disruption will remain at the core of our value.  

To explore how to strengthen your own credit risk strategy, get in touch with us and see how we can help you stay ahead.

This article is based on Andreas Tesch's participation in ICISA’s “CEO Panel: Leading the future of insurance and reinsurance”.