How geopolitics, financing, and AI redefine credit insurance in 2026

Understanding the forces that will shape 2026 is essential for businesses that rely on credit insurance to support their growth.

At the annual Credit Solutions Conference hosted by Aon, our CMO Marc Henstridge shared his views on the trends that will define the year ahead. His perspective explored geopolitical disruption, macroeconomic pressures, evolving financing needs, and the accelerating role of AI. Together, these factors are reshaping how businesses trade and how Atradius is evolving to support them.

A volatile economic outlook for 2026

As 2026 began, Atradius expected a modest but stable growth across major regions. Europe and the UK were forecast to see slight easing, to about 1%. The United States was projected to improve modestly, with inflation remaining higher than in Europe, while Asia was expected to slow only marginally from growth rates above 5%. Latin America was forecast to grow around 2%. The Middle East and North Africa region was also projected to strengthen, moving from 3.4% to around 3.9% growth, supported by recovery in Libya and Syria and sustained expansion in Egypt, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia. This picture changed abruptly after the beginning of the war in Iran.

According to Atradius CMO Marc Henstridge, “We were expecting a relatively benign 2026, but that is clearly no longer the case. The events in the Middle East will significantly affect the global economic outlook. Markets have reacted immediately. Oil price instability is one of the clearest consequences. Pre-conflict, oil was around USD 60 a barrel; it has already doubled, and where it ultimately settles remains uncertain.

Such volatility inevitably brings inflationary pressures globally, and inflation, in turn, will push interest rates upward as a countermeasure, creating further strain. As a credit insurer, we are used to navigating these dynamics together with our customers. We managed abrupt disruption during COVID and again following the Russia–Ukraine war”. 

Supporting clients in a world shaped by geopolitical disruption

One of the advantages of working with a global operator such as Atradius is its direct presence in the region. The company is active in seven Middle Eastern markets, with teams based in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. “Our first concern has been the welfare of our people and partners on the ground. Having teams in the field is extremely helpful when assessing the evolution of a situation like this,” Henstridge explains. 

Atradius’ immediate concern has been the impact of the situation on trade flows. Land routes and air cargo have found alternative solutions relatively quickly. The sea route, however, has been significantly affected by the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, which is essential for global trade. 

According to Henstridge, “We have observed that some clients are redirecting shipments from the United Arab Emirates through Oman. As a result, we are seeing increased credit limit activity linked to Oman, and we are supporting this where it clearly represents a viable trade route. The sectors most exposed to this trade disruption include chemicals, petrochemicals, agrochemicals, transportation, fossil fuels, plastics, steel, aluminium and, at a local level, hospitality and restaurants.

We are in direct dialogue with clients connected to the region, whether they trade domestically or rely on imports and exports, as well as with their critical debtors. If buyers were already under pressure before the crisis and depended on incoming goods, they have inevitably been affected. Our focus is to understand what alternative supplies or trade routes they have secured to mitigate additional risks.” 

The growing role of credit insurance in financing

At the same time as businesses navigate heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, credit insurance itself is undergoing a clear transformation in 2026. Banks and funders have become major buyers of both credit insurance and surety solutions, and corporates are increasingly looking to leverage their policies to secure improved financing. This shift has deepened demand across the market. 

Credit insurance has long supported funding, but the role it plays has expanded significantly. Many clients once relied on full-turnover solutions to secure lending. Over time, coverage broadened to include factoring lines, invoice discounting, and stock finance. After the 2008 financial crisis, institutions increasingly turned to credit insurance for risk transfer and, later, for capital relief.

“Capital relief remains a major driver and is likely behind much of the 60% of enquiries coming from financial institutions. This trend will continue. Single-situation transactions are here to stay, and we must keep a strong focus on them across the credit and political risk insurance market. Another important development from the perspective of banks is the growing use of surety alongside trade credit. The two are increasingly viewed together. Banks are providing multi-option facilities that combine lending, which we traditionally support, with bank guarantee facilities.

What we are seeing now is that part of these solutions is being channelled to us, either through master participation agreements that bring us in directly or through banks reinsuring elements of their guarantee business with credit insurers. This approach is becoming more widespread, and its use will continue to expand,” Henstridge says. 

A more collaborative and capacity-driven market

As financing structures become more sophisticated and cross‑border transactions grow in scale, clients increasingly expect insurers to deliver solutions that are flexible, coordinated and aligned across markets. This shift is prompting the industry to rethink how it organises capacity and responds to large or time‑sensitive requests. The ability to structure cover efficiently and provide clarity upfront has become a defining element of effective client support. 

According to Atradius CMO, “In many ways, this evolution is natural. If you look at how banks operate, they commonly use syndications and are accustomed to sharing risk among themselves. It is therefore logical that banks and large corporates seek similar structures within our market, especially where the scale of exposure requires more than one insurer. Syndication is a critical element. We must present ourselves as a cohesive industry to ensure we support clients properly. And it goes beyond syndications or coinsurance. There is rising demand for top-up solutions, which become essential when capacity is constrained”.

Talent at the core of the AI transformation

As we move through 2026, the insurance industry is entering a new phase of artificial intelligence development, marked by largescale transformation that is reshaping how insurers operate, assess risk, and serve clients. This shift is organisational in addition to being technological: AI is changing the skills companies require, the roles they prioritise, and the way talent is developed. Against this backdrop, Henstridge reflects on how Atradius is approaching this new era and the capabilities needed to support it. 

“We have used AI in underwriting for decades, but we are now focused on achieving the next level of improvement. One major opportunity is using AI to enhance the efficiency of our internal operations. Clients may not see this directly, but it is where we invest significant resources to ensure smooth interactions. It is not only about investing in AI, but also about ensuring we have the right people to use it effectively. From a recruitment perspective, we are prioritising data experts because without reliable data in the correct structure, AI cannot deliver accurate results. We are also expanding our collections teams. Collections is a rapidly growing part of our business and is becoming integral to the overall credit solution. And of course, we continue to invest in surety expertise as that area expands”, Henstridge adds. 

For the SME segment, AI opens the door to a fundamentally different type of product design. Smaller businesses expect fast decisions, seamless onboarding, and cover that adapts instantly to their trading behaviour, expectations that traditional manual processes cannot meet at scale. AI allows to create solutions that are both more efficient and more responsive to SME needs. As Henstridge summarises: “Achieving a fully automated SME solution is no longer optional, and AI can help us finally deliver it.” 

From shifting trade routes to evolving financing needs and the rise of AI, the industry is moving quickly. By staying close to clients, investing in expertise and embracing innovation, Atradius is ready to help businesses navigate uncertainty and unlock new opportunities in the year ahead.  

To explore how to strengthen your own credit risk strategy, get in touch with us and see how we can help you stay ahead.

This article is based on Marc Henstridge's participation in the “Harnessing the Future: Credit Solutions Market Outlook” panel, as part of the AON Credit Solutions Conference 2026. You can watch the full discussion on demand here.